THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION-A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT
从信贷演变这一关键变量出发，对比事后文献与事前分析，说明信贷对商业周期的影响无法被政策制定者利用，从而解释经济学家为何未能预测大衰退。
Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex-ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.