Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions
基于金融中介成本模型，发现衰退期财政乘数可超过2，而繁荣期小于1，源于利差对财政政策在衰退期更敏感。
Standard business cycle models have difficulties generating large, state‐dependent fiscal multipliers. Employing a model of costly financial intermediation based on Curdia–Woodford, we show that fiscal multipliers can be strongly state dependent: fiscal expansions during recessions may lead to multiplier values exceeding two, while similar expansions during economic booms would produce values falling short of unity. This pattern obtains if the spread (the financial friction) is more sensitive to fiscal policy during recessions than during expansions, a feature that is present in the data. Our results are consistent with recent empirical work documenting the state contingency of multipliers.