Government Size and Output Growth: the Effects of “Averaging out”
研究使用1986-2004年全球化时期的数据，发现政府支出占GDP比重在年度数据中对长期增长有显著负效应，但5年平均面板数据却显示该效应被削弱。
Panel data studies typically “average out” the error terms to be five calendar years apart such that they are less influenced by business cycle fluctuations. Using dynamic growth equations over the “globalization years” of 1986–2004, we provide an examination of the role of government expenditures to GDP (G/Y) in long-run growth. While the yearly time span is actually not prone to serious serial correlation problems, more powerful implications follow: We do observe strong negative long-run effects of G/Y on output growth in yearly time spans, while the averaged-out 5-year panels suggest the long-run economic impact of G/Y is muted.