Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long‐range investment decisions
通过三个实地实验，发现情景规划不会整体改变专家对长期投资的信心，而是根据投资在特定情景中的表现调整判断，且专家更偏好灵活选项。
We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of several long‐range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease in experts' confidence in their judgment. Rather, expert judgment changes in accordance with how an investment fares in a given scenario: it becomes more favorable if the investment is found to be useful for a particular scenario used by the expert, and vice versa. This scenario‐induced change is moderated by the expert's confidence in his/her judgment before using the scenario. Finally, our results show that field experts prefer more flexible options to make specific long‐range investments after using multiple scenarios . Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.