Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone
研究了2000-2012年欧元区国家的私人杠杆、财政政策、劳动力成本和利差动态，通过模型识别信贷周期、过度政府支出和突然停止的影响，发现繁荣期更保守的财政政策、宏观审慎政策和央行早期干预能显著缓解衰退和稳定就业。
We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscal policy, labor costs, and spreads, and we propose a model and an identification strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles, excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask how periphery countries would have fared with different policies. We find that countries could have stabilized their employment if they had followed more conservative fiscal policies during the boom. Macroprudential policies and an early intervention by the central bank to prevent market segmentation and reduce fiscal austerity would also have significantly reduced the recession.