Estimating the Impact of Large Cigarette Tax Hikes
通过统计匹配方法选择对照组，发现四个大幅提高卷烟税的州孕妇吸烟率下降；利用税收作为工具变量，发现孕期吸烟使低出生体重风险翻倍。
Abstract Using a statistical matching procedure to choose control groups, we find that four states that adopted large cigarette tax hikes had corresponding decreases in smoking participation of pregnant women. Using the tax hike as an instrument for smoking in birth-weight equations and pooling data across experiments, we find that smoking during pregnancy doubles the chance an infant is born with a low birth weight. Our estimates are similar to single-equation estimates where maternal smoking is treated as exogenous.