失业(恐惧)与通缩螺旋

Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals

Journal of the European Economic Association · 2017
被引 25
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

研究发现,不完全市场与名义工资粘性相互作用会放大经济周期,因为失业恐惧引发预防性储蓄,增加货币需求导致通缩压力,进而降低企业利润、加剧失业恐惧,形成恶性循环。

Abstract

The interaction of incomplete markets and sticky nominal wages is shown to magnify business cycles even though these two features - in isolation - dampen them. During recessions, fears of unemployment stir up precautionary sentiments which induces agents to save more. The additional savings may be used as investments which induces agents to save more. The additional savings may be used as investments in both a productive asset (equity) and an unproductive asset (money). But even a small rise in money demand has important consequences. The desire to hold money puts deflationary pressure on the economy, which, provided that nominal wages are sticky, increases wage costs and reduces firm profits. Lower profits repress the desire to save in equity, which increases (the fear of) unemployment, and so on. This is a powerful mechanism which causes the model to behave differently from both its complete markets version, and a version with incomplete markets but without aggregate uncertainty. In contrast to previous results in the literature, agents uniformly prefer non-trivial levels of unemployment insurance.

不完全市场名义工资粘性预防性储蓄通缩螺旋