Agricultural Payments and Land Concentration: A Semiparametric Spatial Regression Analysis
利用1987-2002年美国农业普查的邮政编码级数据，研究联邦农业补贴是否导致耕地和农地集中度上升。半参数广义可加模型显示，政府补贴与后续土地集中增长密切相关。
Abstract Over the last twenty years, both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations. This study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland. Using zip code—level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987–2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration. A semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) controls for location and historical concentration, sales per acre, and ratio of cropland area to zip code area. Findings indicate, both with and without nonparametric controls, government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth.