MANAGED TRADE WITH IMPERFECT INFORMATION*
扩展了Bagwell和Staiger的经典模型，纳入当期不确定性，说明不完全信息对自我执行贸易协定的重要性，发现预期福利在当期不确定性下更高，且高不确定性可能削弱保障条款的必要性。
This article illustrates the importance of imperfect information in self‐enforcing trade agreements. It shows that expected welfare is higher with current period uncertainty, and a high level of uncertainty may even undermine the need for a safeguard clause. These results were derived by extending the seminal paper by Bagwell and Staiger ( The American Economic Review 80 (1990), 779–95) to account for current period uncertainty.