ON THE STABILITY OF HOUSING SECTOR INTERACTION: EVIDENCE FROM 42 METROPOLITAN AREAS*
基于马尔可夫链的住房空置链模型，利用美国42个大都市区的人口普查数据，检验住房部门互动在时间上的稳定性，发现稳定性因测量指标、视角和时间跨度而异。
ABSTRACT. Residential vacancy chain models based on White's (1971) application of Markov chain theory are used to simulate flows of housing vacancies through a set of interdependent housing market sectors. Measures of housing sector interaction are derived from such models. Our purpose here is to address the issue of time stationarity raised by their use. U.S. census data are available to calibrate such models at two, and sometimes three, points in time. Data from 42 different SMSAs are used to generate 56 cross‐temporal comparisons with interobservation periods ranging from three to eight years. Stability of interaction is addressed from two perspectives–the sectoral perspective and the areawide perspective. Results are mixed and depend upon which measure of interaction is used, which perspective is addressed, and the duration of the interobservation period. However, within limits, findings support continued use of vacancy chain models.