The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth
研究国家内部增长经历的极端变化，发现几乎所有国家都会经历增长奇迹和失败，且增长加速与崩溃不对称：崩溃伴随投资减少和价格不稳定，而增长起飞主要与国际贸易扩张相关。
This paper investigates the remarkable extremes of growth experiences within countries and the changes that occur across growth transitions. We find two main results. First, virtually all but the very richest countries experience both growth miracles and failures over substantial periods. Second, growth accelerations and collapses are asymmetric phenomena. Collapses typically feature reduced investment amidst increasing price instability, whereas growth takeoffs are primarily associated with large expansions in international trade. The results show that even very poor countries regularly grow rapidly, but sustaining growth is difficult and may pose a very different set of challenges than starting it. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.