The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions
提出一种方法，用于估算灾难性地震导致电力生命线中断的区域经济影响，并以孟菲斯附近新马德里地震带为例，模拟显示恢复期生产损失可达区域生产总值的7%，而跨部门电力重新分配和优化变电站恢复模式可大幅减少损失。
This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. The methodology is based on specially designed input‐output and linear programming models. A simulation of a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone near Memphis, Tennessee, indicates the potential production loss over the recovery period could amount to as much as 7 percent of gross regional product. Reallocation of scarce electricity across sectors could reduce the impacts substantially. Additionally, an improved restoration pattern of electricity transmission substations across subareas could reduce losses even more.