What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?
论证分析季节性波动能揭示商业周期本质，因为季节性波动的识别限制更可信，并提供了偏好转移和协同均衡的例子，反对生产平滑假说，支持劳动和资本利用的未测量变化。
This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.