Earnings Predictability and the Direction of Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors
重新检验了盈利可预测性与分析师预测误差之间的关系，发现控制盈利水平后，两者无显著关联，不支持分析师为获取管理层信息而故意发布乐观预测的观点。
Das et al. (1998) suggest that as earnings become less predictable, analysts issue increasingly optimistic forecasts to please managers and consequently gain, or at least limit the loss of, access to managers' private information. We reexamine the association between earnings forecast error and earnings predictability because there is evidence suggesting that deliberate earnings forecast optimism is not an effective mechanism for gaining access to managers' information (e.g., Eames et al. 2002; Matsumoto 2002). We document associations between earnings level and both forecast error and earnings predictability. These associations suggest that earnings level may be an important control variable when examining the association between forecast error and earnings predictability. When we control for the level of earnings we find no significant association between forecast error and earnings predictability. Thus, we find no evidence that analysts intentionally issue optimistically biased earnings forecasts.