Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets
研究美国农作物保险市场，发现系统性天气效应导致农场产量高度相关，使保险公司风险组合比独立情况高出20至50倍，而区域产量再保险可大幅降低风险至常规财产险水平。
Abstract Without affordable reinsurance, private crop insurance markets are doomed to fail because systemic weather effects induce high correlation among farm‐level yields, defeating insurer efforts to pool risks across farms. Using an empirical model of the U.S. crop insurance market, we find that U.S. crop insurer portfolios are twenty to fifty times riskier than they would be otherwise if yields were stochastically independent across farms. We also find that area yield reinsurance contracts would enable crop insurers to cover most of their systemic crop loss risk, reducing their risk exposure to levels typically experienced by more conventional property liability insurers.