Twin Deficits versus Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic in a Small Open Economy
研究有限寿命居民的小型开放经济中，财政赤字、消费储蓄行为、经常账户失衡和汇率的关系。发现若预期未来用税收弥补赤字则出现双赤字，若预期用货币融资则当前消费下降、贸易顺差，即不愉快的财政算术。
This paper studies fiscal deficits, consumption-saving behavior, current account imbalances, and exchange rates in a small open economy populated by households with finite lives. Suppose the government undertakes a bond-financed tax cut today. The authors find that if tax finance is anticipated primarily to be used in the future to close the deficit then 'twin deficits' will be observed today, but if money finance is anticipated primarily to be used in the future then current fiscal deficits will induce a decline in current consumption, thus creating trade surpluses, a result they term 'unpleasant fiscal arithmetic.' Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.