Rhetoric and Keynes' use of statistics in The Economic Consequences of the Peace
考察凯恩斯《和平的经济后果》中统计数据的来源,发现其多来自财政部备忘录,手稿显示直接粘贴,质疑了故意夸大或伪造数据的批评。
Readers of Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace are usually struck by the book’s rhetorical style. Since Étienne Mantoux’s highly critical book, The Carthaginian Peace—or The Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes, a number of scholars have argued Keynes must have either deliberately exaggerated his statistics or, worse, have drawn on numbers that had somehow been falsified. However, on closer examination this appears a harsh judgement. Many of Keynes’s statistics come directly from two Treasury memoranda, one dated 1916, the other 1918. Keynes’s original handwritten manuscript survives in the King’s College archives at Cambridge, in which sections of these memoranda are ‘cut and pasted’ directly into the manuscript. While Keynes, a Treasury official during the war, is undoubtedly the primary author, it is unlikely the entire Treasury would have been complicit in turning a blind eye to deliberately exaggerated or falsified figures.