Why Did the Ruble Collapse in August 1998?
分析1998年8月卢布崩溃的原因，认为外部冲击（亚洲金融危机）与俄罗斯财政基本面脆弱性共同导致危机，并指出临时外汇管制比债务违约和延期偿付更优。
The factors that led to the collapse of the ruble are analyzed. It is argued that it resulted from exogenous factors (closely related to the unanticipated Asian financial crisis) interacting with inherited weaknesses in fundamentals (of fiscal policy) that made the Russian economy, while progressively being brought to macroeconomic stability, nonetheless vulnerable to a large external shock. It is contended that, instead of the policy mistake of August 1998 requiring a default of domestic debt and moratorium on payment of foreign commercial debt, a decision by Russian authorities to offer temporary exchange controls, sanctioned by the IMF and the U.S. Treasury as an emergency measure, would have been a better alternative, obviating the de facto partial and unilateral resort to controls that the moratorium and default implied.