Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle
研究发现，在控制未来盈余预期后，经济收缩期的当期盈余保守性和价值相关性反而更高，而未来盈余预期的价值相关性在经济扩张期更高。
Abstract: Prior research has demonstrated higher value relevance of current earnings during economic expansions relative to contractions. We largely attribute such a result to expected growth prospects being captured in the current earnings coefficient when a direct proxy for expected future earnings is omitted from the returns‐earnings model. We demonstrate that the conservatism and value relevance of current earnings is actually higher during economic contractions when including a proxy for future earnings expectations. We further demonstrate that the value‐relevance of expected future earnings is higher during expansions, when the association between historical accounting information and future growth opportunities likely weakens.