Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis
发现,Lilien的就业增长离散指数中很大一部分变动源于油价冲击对不同行业的差异化影响;在剔除这一影响后,剩余离散度对失业没有解释力。
Recent research by David Lilien shows that a significant fraction of aggregate unemployment can be explained by the dispersion of employment growth across industries. This paper presents two new results in this area. First, it is shown that a significant fraction of the variation in Lilien's dispersion index is due to the differential impact of oil shocks across industries. Second, and more important, it is shown that, once the dispersion in employment growth due to oil shocks is accounted for, the residual dispersion has no explanatory power for unemployment.