THE WORLD AND UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS
分析了美国、日本和德国国内需求增长差异导致的经常账户失衡，探讨了美元贬值与再通胀政策对全球经济的影响，并提供了英国经济预测。
The different rates of growth of domestic demand in the US, Japan and Germany together with past exchange rate misalignments have led to massive current account imbalances. The US is estimated to have had a current account deficit of almost $140 billion in 1986 whereas Japan is expected to have achieved a surplus of over $80 billion and Germany a surplus of some $35 billion. The US administration has argued that these imbalances can be rectified by reflationary policies elsewhere, as well as by a fall in the dollar. However, they are acutely aware that if the current account deficit does not fall quite quickly then protectionist sentiment in the United States may become irresistible. Therefore, in the absence of expansionary policies in Japan and Germany, the US administration has appeared willing to let the dollar continue to fall thus putting direct pressure on these other countries to reflate. In Section II of this article the likely outcome for the international economy is described. This is followed in Section III by the latest O.E.F. forecast for the UK economy. Finally, in Section IV the causes and possible cures for the US current account deficit are examined in detail.