Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results
利用OECD国家面板数据和民调数据，检验了选举意外程度对选后经济波动的影响，为理性党派理论提供了实证支持。
The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post‐electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries.