Bias in the Consumer Price Index: What Is the Evidence?
回顾了美国消费者价格指数可能存在的向上偏差,分析了公式偏差和质量调整的实例,并评估了现有经验证据的可靠性,指出哪些偏差估计有据可查,哪些基于推测。
Recent research has suggested that the upward bias of the U.S. consumer price index may be significant, and correcting the biases would have important long-run effects on the federal budget deficit. The author describes the sampling procedures used in constructing the consumer price index, and gives simple examples of formula bias and quality adjustment. He then reviews the empirical evidence, attempting to show which biases are reliably estimated and which estimates of bias are based on extrapolation and guesswork. The author discusses possibilities for further research leading to potential improvements in the consumer price index.