重访拉丁美洲债务危机:欧元区外围国家的一些教训

Revisiting Latin America's debt crisis: some lessons for the periphery of the eurozone

Cambridge Journal of Economics · 2013
被引 13
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

构建了一个新兴市场开放经济的Domar-Pasinetti模型,分析1980年代拉美债务危机中财政紧缩政策的高昂代价,提出促增长政策是降低债务比率的更有效策略,并为欧元区外围国家应对危机提供借鉴。

Abstract

A Domar–Pasinetti model of an emerging-market open economy with output growth endogenous to aggregate demand is presented, with foreign debt, interest and exchange rates playing a relevant role in the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio (d). The model is used to assess the macroeconomic effects of the orthodox policy (fiscal austerity) implemented by policy makers to cope with the foreign debt crisis of Latin America in the 1980s. Such policy involved high costs in terms of welfare, job and output losses to no avail, since the region’s financial fragility remained largely unresolved, in the end resulting in the so-called ‘lost decade’. The main policy insight of Domar’s and Pasinetti’s analysis, we argue, posits a pro-growth expansionary policy as the most efficient strategy to abate and bring d to a sustainable path. Finally, we contend that Latin America’s experience provides insight for dealing with the ongoing crisis of the periphery of the eurozone.

拉丁美洲债务危机欧元区外围国家财政紧缩