Trends in Unemployment Duration Data
提出一种从加总失业数据估计未中断失业持续时间分布的方法，不假设恒定个体风险率并允许异质性，进而分析失业持续期的特征及其与劳动需求、供给变量的关系。
A method of estimating the distribution of uninterrupted unemploymentspells from aggregate unemployment data is outlined. The methodology does not i mpose constant individual hazard rates and allows for heterogeneity. Characteris tics of the distribution of unemployment spells are then considered including ha zard rates, measures of inequality such as Gini coefficients, and the fraction o f total unemployment associated with S weeks of unemploy-ment. The relationship between these char-acteristics and labor demand variables (GNP) and supply-side variables (transfer payments, unemployment insurance) is considered in or-der to better understand the relative role of short- and long-run unemployment. Copyright 1986 by MIT Press.