Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming
构建了一个考虑能源资源内生替代和多种能源需求的全球变暖模型，发现若太阳能成本持续下降，大部分煤炭将不会被使用，全球变暖幅度远低于IPCC预测。
A model of global warming with endogenous substitution of energy resources and multiple energy demands is developed. It suggests that, if historical rates of cost reduction in the production of solar energy are maintained, most of the world's coal will never be used. The world will move from oil and natural gas use to solar energy. Temperatures will rise by only about 1.5-2.0 degrees centigrade by the middle of the twenty-first century and then decline to preindustrial levels. These results are significantly lower than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and suggest that the case for global warming may be seriously overstated. Copyright 1997 by the University of Chicago.