The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank
研究了欧美利率期限结构与货币政策工具、实际经济活动及通货膨胀的关系，发现收益率曲线对实际活动和通胀有显著预测能力，可为欧洲央行提供参考。
This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but is unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy.