Inflation Uncertainty, Asset Valuations, and the Credit Spreads Puzzle
研究投资者从当前通胀学习未来实体经济状态，导致资产估值和企业偿付能力出现宏观状态依赖，进而解释信用利差高于平均偿付能力水平所对应的利差这一谜题。
Investors' learning of the state of future real fundamentals from current inflation leads to macroeconomic state dependence of asset valuations and solvency ratios of firms within given rating categories. Since credit spreads are convex functions of solvency ratios, average spreads are higher than spreads at average solvency ratios. Macroeconomic shocks carry risk premiums so that expected default losses are more sensitive to changes in the price of risk than are credit spreads. By incorporating state dependence and increasing the price of risk, the econometrician obtains high credit spreads while maintaining average default losses at historical levels—the credit spreads puzzle. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.