Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds
推导了涉及任意有限数量变量预期未来值的一般现值关系的方差界，并证明这些界及其估计量的联合分布收敛于多元正态分布。作为特例，期限结构的预期模型对长期利率方差施加了上下界，用于检验美国长期国债收益率的理性预期模型。
Variance bounds are derived for general present-value relations involving the expected future values of any finite number of variables. The estimators of these bounds and the variance being bounded are then shown to have a joint distribution converging to that of the multivariate normal, with moments which can be consistently estimated from the data. As a special case of these results, it is shown that expectations models of the term structure imply upper and lower bounds on the variance of the long-term rate. These bounds are used to test a rational expectations model of long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields.