Economic and environmental effects of decoupled agricultural support in the EU
通过模拟欧盟农业系统，研究了2003年协议下不同脱钩选项对农户毛利润、土地利用、土地影子成本和温室气体排放的影响，发现脱钩支持能提高农户毛利润但导致耕地转为牧场，且成员国政策选择影响显著。
This article reports findings from a simulation model representing the European farming system disaggregated at different scales. This modeling experiment explores the effects of various decoupling options associated with the 2003 European agreement on gross margins, land use, shadow cost of land, and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show increases in the farmers’ gross margins when decoupled support is maintained equal to the amount of direct aid previously attributed to agricultural production, assuming unchanged prices. Land used for pasture increases at the expense of land used for cereals and protein crops. The extent to which these effects materialize depends on the policy options selected by Member States when implementing the Luxembourg agreement. When they opt for some recoupling of support, adverse net economic impacts occur for producers. Regional differences in impacts are more pronounced than the analysis aggregated at European and national scales suggests. This highlights the need for further work based on geostatistical downscaling.