Great expectations: Past wages and unemployment durations
将工资分解为工人和公司固定成分后，发现公司固定成分占比较大。工人若无法完全观察这一成分，可能高估整体工资水平，导致保留工资过高、失业期延长。利用奥地利行政数据，发现年轻工人若过去受益于高公司固定成分，失业时间更长，这支持了不完全观察生产率导致的过度自信假说。
Decomposing wages into worker and firm wage components, we find that firm-fixed components are sizeable parts of workers' wages. If workers can only imperfectly observe the extent of firm-fixed components in their wages, they might be misled about the overall wage distribution. Such misperceptions may lead to unjustified high reservation wages, resulting in overly long unemployment durations. We examine the influence of previous wages on unemployment durations for workers after exogenous lay-offs and, using Austrian administrative data, we find that younger workers are, in fact, unemployed longer if they profited from high firm-fixed components in the past. We interpret our findings as evidence for overconfidence generated by imperfectly observed productivity.