Tests for multiple forecast encompassing
开发了检验一个预测是否包含多个竞争预测所有有用信息的方法,该方法对预测误差的常见性质具有稳健性,并应用于英国增长和通胀预测。
In the evaluation of economic forecasts, it is frequently the case that comparisons are made between a number of competing predictors. A natural question to ask in such contexts is whether one forecast encompasses its competitors, in the sense that they contain no useful information not present in the superior forecast. We develop tests for this notion of multiple forecast encompassing which are robust to properties expected in the forecast errors, and apply the tests to forecasts of UK growth and inflation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.