Reaching Inflation Stability
通过估计新凯恩斯模型，分析美国过去20年通胀波动下降的原因，发现更前瞻性的定价行为是主因，对研究通胀和货币政策的人有用。
Inflation volatility has significantly declined over the last 20 years in the U.S. To find out why, I follow a structural approach. I estimate a complete New Keynesian model which imposes cross-equation restrictions on the time series of inflation, the output gap, and the interest rate. I perform counterfactual analysis with two commonly used measures of inflation: Consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product deflator (GDPD). While the change in the propagation mechanism of the economy induced most of the CPI volatility drop, it played a smaller role in the reduction of GDPD volatility. Our maximum likelihood estimates imply that the most important factor behind the drop in inflation volatility was the more forward-looking price-setting behavior of the 1980s and 1990s.