THE EFFECT OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT, EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOMES AND LAND VALUES IN THE U.K.
建立模型分析英国农业价格支持政策变化对就业、投资、收入和土地价格的影响，模拟支持价格提高1%的效果，发现投资增加但就业先升后降。
Agricultural price policy has a major impact on the input markets as well as the output markets and a model is developed to analyse the effects of changes in support levels on U.K. agricultural employment, earnings, investment and land prices. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of the model and simulates the effects of a one per cent increase in support prices. The main conclusions are that net investment would increase in the years following the rise by a maximum in the second year of £12m and by a cumulative total of £44m (representing an increase of about 0.4 per cent in the capital stock). Employment on the other hand, while rising at first, would subsequently fall to almost one per cent below its original level, and earnings of hired labour also fall slightly. Net farm income increases by around 10 per cent and this is capitalised into a similar increase in land values.