Use of Forecasts of Earnings to Estimate and Compare Cost of Capital Across Regimes
批判性地审视了近期文献中用于估计和比较不同会计/监管制度下资本成本的几种方法，重点强调了短期预测期之后增长预期的重要性，并以2004年道琼斯工业平均指数成分股为例，说明假设的增长率和数据隐含的增长率之间的差异可能导致错误的推断。
Abstract: I critically examine several of the methods used in the recent literature to estimate and compare the cost of capital across different accounting/regulatory regimes. I focus on the central importance of expectations of growth beyond the short period for which forecasts of future pay‐offs (dividends and/or earnings) are available. I illustrate, using the stocks that comprised the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at December 31, 2004, as an example, the differences between the growth rates implied by the data, and growth rates that are often assumed in the literature. My analyses show that assumptions about growth beyond the (short) forecast horizon may seriously affect the estimates of the expected rate of return and may lead to spurious inferences.