Macro-Economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity
通过比较欧洲汇率机制成员国与非成员国的实际产出增长和通胀行为，分析该机制对宏观经济表现的影响，并检验美、德、日三极格局假说。
The authors use the comparative behavior of real output growth and inflation behavior of members and nonmembers of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) to analyze the importance of ERM membership on macroeconomic performance. An econometric procedure for identifying temporary and permanent shocks to output is proposed and executed. The results confirm that the ERM has acted as a vehicle for macropolicy coordination between members. The authors also investigate several issues relating to the hypothesis of global economic 'tri-polarity' between the United States, Germany, and Japan. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.