World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates
研究固定与浮动汇率时期月度工业生产指数的行为，发现浮动汇率下增长率波动更大，且波动性与开放度和国民收入相关，同时存在世界商业周期的证据。
This paper studies the behavior of monthly industrial production indices during the recent periods of fixed and flexible exchange rate s. The central conclusions are as follows: industrial production indices are subject to stochastic trend growth; the variances of the monthly growth rates are higher in the flexible exchange rate period than in the fixed exchange rate period, and are related to the degree of openness and to national income-more open economies tend to experience more variability while richer, more diversified economies experience less; and output movements have been correlated across countries under both exchange rate regimes, and there is evidence of a world business cycle. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.