Global rice trade competitiveness: a shift‐share analysis
运用偏离份额分析框架，将1997至2008年全球大米出口份额变化分解为地理结构效应和绩效效应，发现出口集中于少数国家，竞争力效应显著，越南成为与泰国竞争的新兴主要出口国。
Abstract Changes in country shares of global rice exports from 1997 to 2008 are analyzed using an econometric, shift‐share analytical framework. This framework estimates growth rates and disaggregates these rates of change into geographical structure effects and performance effects. The performance effect is further decomposed into two subeffects accounting for adaptation to changes in the geographical structure of the marketplace and a competitiveness effect. A restricted, weighted, two‐way fixed effects model is specified for estimating the geographical structure and performance effects. Results indicate a growing concentration among a few exporting countries in the global rice market, and the competitiveness effect is often significant. Government policies affecting rice trade and the competitiveness of trading partners are important factors for the shifts in rice trade patterns. In particular, Vietnam is an emerging, major player in global rice trade in competition with Thailand.