Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate
研究政策体制变化（以总统更替、国会政党控制变化等衡量）对实际利率的影响，发现总统更替比美联储主席更替或时间序列断点更能解释实际利率变动，并指出假设实际利率恒定或政策不变的理论模型与实证证据不符。
The effect of changes in policy regimes on real interest rates has important implications for financial and economic theory. There is little current evidence that policy regime changes have any impact on the level of real interest rates. We use large political changes as our measure of policy regime changes. Changes in presidential administration are more significantly correlated with real rate changes than are changes in the Federal Reserve Chair or the mean shift points identified by Garcia and Perron (1996) using time series methods. We also show that change of party control of congress is a significant factor explaining real rates. We argue that theoretical models built on the assumptions of constant or policy invariant real interest rates are at variance with the empirical evidence.