Whatever Happened to Goldilocks? The Role of Expectations in Estimates of the NAIRU in the US and the UK*
用菲利普斯曲线模型检验美国与英国通胀与失业关系的变化，发现通胀预期（尤其在美国）对NAIRU估计有重要影响，且1990年代末NAIRU持续下降，但这一下降并非仅出现在1990年代。
Abstract During the second half of the 1990s the US economy was characterized as the Goldilocks economy: not too hot, nor too cold, but just right. It was argued that this represented a new paradigm, enabling unemployment to remain low without igniting inflationary pressure. We examine the evidence for a change in the relationship between inflation and unemployment for the US and UK using Phillips curve models. The impact of including explicit inflation expectations is also considered. Inflation expectations are found to play an important role, particularly in the US. When expectations are included there is still evidence that the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) steadily declined during the late 1990s, although this decline in the US NAIRU is not found solely in the 1990s.