Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates
构建基于调查的指标衡量市场对美联储大规模资产购买计划的预期变化，发现信号渠道和投资组合平衡渠道均降低了长期利率，且前瞻指引延长了政策效果。
Abstract This paper constructs a survey‐based measure capturing the evolution of market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's Large‐Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program during 2008–18, and examines the transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy. Estimation results suggest that both signaling and portfolio balance channels of the LSAP were important in lowering long‐term interest rates; Moreover, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance policy had led to a gradual extension of market's projections of the duration of the LSAP, making its effects more persistent. Model estimation also explains the 2013 taper tantrum well, and suggests that the LSAP's effects might have declined during QE III.