The Flypaper Effect Revisited: An Econometric Explanation
蒙特卡洛证据表明，当匹配援助的封闭性导致普通最小二乘模型中的整笔拨款变量内生时，对整笔援助支出倾向的估计存在向上偏差，支持在预算约束分段线性时使用最大似然模型。
Monte Carlo evidence is presented which supports the conclusion that when a block grants variable in an ordinary least squares (OLS) model is endogenously constructed due to the closed-ended nature of matching aid, estimates of the propensity to spend lump-sum aid are biased upward. The findings suggest that OLS estimates lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the existence of a flypaper effect and support the use of maximum likelihood models in situations where budget constraints are piecewise-linear.