An Econometric Analysis of Income Tax Evasion and Its Detection
利用美国国税局1982和1985年纳税人合规测量项目数据，建立两个方程分别衡量逃税程度和检测比例，分析收入、边际税率等对逃税行为的影响，并估算税收缺口。
This article presents an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection based on individual-level data drawn from the Internal Revenue Service 1982 and 1985 Taxpayer Compliance Measurement Programs. I specify a model consisting of two equations: the first measures the extent of evasion; the second, the fraction of evasion detected. The empirical analysis explores the effects of income, the marginal tax rate, and various socioeconomic characteristics on filer evasion behavior, and it assesses the variability in detection rates among IRS examiners. Finally, I use the empirical estimates to construct new estimates of the income tax gap; the new estimates are very close to the previous IRS estimates.