Adam Smith and the Welfare Cost of Optimism
指出亚当·斯密在论证利率上限时发现了一种未被深入研究的福利损失来源：竞争将资源分配给出价最高者，而他们的预期往往存在乐观偏差，导致产出损失。
Adam Smith, in his well-known defense of interest ceilings, is shown to have stumbled upon a source of welfare losses which, though pervasive and potentially fundamental, has never been further explored. Such losses occur because competition allocates resources to the highest bidd ers, whose expectations tend to have an optimistic bias. Incorrect expectations, however, may cause output losses. In the first section of the paper. Smith's argument about ceiling rates is generalized to a proposition about resource allocation.