The Micro-Macro Disconnect of Purchasing Power Parity
发现宏观实际汇率持续存在,而微观相对价格调整更快,但控制宏观冲击后微观价格同样持续,挑战了基于价格粘性和商品异质性的理论。
This paper reconciles the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates with the faster adjustment of international relative prices in microeconomic data. Error correction model estimates indicate that a different mix of shocks drives international price deviations at the microeconomic level and that dynamic adjustment works through arbitrage in the goods market rather than the foreign exchange market. When half-lives are estimated conditional on a common set of estimated macro shocks, we find that micro relative prices exhibit every bit as much persistence as aggregate real exchange rates. These results challenge theories of real exchange rate persistence based on sticky prices and heterogeneity across goods. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.