The Present Value Issue in a Sequential Selection Problem*
这篇短文指出Chun和Platt在序贯选择问题中误用了现值概念,导致决策标准无效;作者修正了该分析,提出了比Kwan和Yuan更精细的决策标准,并讨论了管理启示。
ABSTRACT This note shows that, due to the misapplication of the present value concept, the Chun and Platt (CP) formulation of a sequential selection problem, which intends to improve on the Kwan and Yuan (KY) analysis, is flawed and the decision criterion thus obtained is invalid. In the context of capital budgeting, we make necessary corrections to the CP analysis and establish a decision criterion which is more refined than the KY case. The refined decision criterion enables us to evaluate the KY analysis objectively and to refute CP's argument about its suboptimality. We also address the managerial implications of the refined decision criterion.