Money, Output, and the Expected Real Interest Rate
检验了在预期实际利率的回归方程中，货币和产出的滞后增长率是否应被排除，并讨论了检验结果对真实商业周期模型的含义。
This paper tests the exclusion of lagged growth rates of money and output from regression equations, with serially correlated disturbances, for the expected real interest rate. The authors empirical approach is an extension of the empirical strategies of Eugene F. Fama (1975) and Frederic S. Mishkin (1981)--which invoke the orthogonality of the inflation forecast error to predetermined regressors under the maintained hypothesis of rational expectations. They discuss the implications of their tests for simple real-business-cycle models. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.