Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks
研究货币政策如何应对油价冲击,发现完全稳定物价的政策会带来巨大福利损失,并推导出一个仅依赖可观测变量的简单利率规则,该规则严格对待核心通胀但容忍油价变化。
How should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock? This paper shows that in a noncompetitive economy, policies that perfectly stabilize prices entail large welfare costs, hence explaining the reluctance of policymakers to enforce them. The policy trade‐off is nontrivial because oil (energy) is an input to both production and consumption. As welfare‐maximizing policies are hard to implement and communicate, I derive a simple interest rate rule that depends only on observables but mimics the optimal plan in all dimensions. The optimal rule is hard on core inflation but accommodates oil price changes.