Do recessions permanently change output?
发现，一旦允许GNP的脉冲响应不对称，负向冲击（衰退）对产出预测的影响在8到12个季度后几乎消失，而正向冲击的影响则持续且随时间放大。这有助于调和关于经济周期波动性质的两种对立观点。
This paper examines whether negative innovations to GNP are more or less persistent than positive innovations. We find that once we allow for the impulse response of GNP to be asymmetric, negative innovations to GNP are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones. In particular, the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters, while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time. Our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations.