Outsiders at the Bank of England's MPC
研究英格兰银行货币政策委员会中外部成员与内部成员的投票差异，发现外部成员更常投反对票且倾向低利率，尤其在衰退期，其反对票能预测未来利率变动。
The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Bank of England consists of five internal and four external members. We study the voting record and show that outsiders dissent more often than insiders and tend to prefer lower rates, especially during economic downturns. Moreover, dissents by outsiders help forecast future interest rate changes, in contrast to dissents by insiders. A model in which outsiders in contrast to insiders are “recession averse” and more uncertain regarding the appropriate level of interest rates replicates the observed voting pattern well.